vS Data Reaper Report #350

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Welcome to the 350th edition of the Data Reaper Report!

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Class/Archetype Distribution | Class Frequency | Matchup Winrates | vS Power Rankings | vS Meta Score | Class Analysis & Decklists | Meta Breaker of the Week | How to Contribute | Credits


Number of Games

Overall 1,930,000
Top 1K Legend 83,000
Legend (Excluding Top 1k) 537,000
Diamond 4 to 1 416,000
Diamond 10 to 5 359,000
Platinum 190,000
Bronze/Silver/Gold 245,000

Class/Archetype Distribution

Class Frequency

Class Frequency Discussion

Before the patch, Companion Hunter was beginning to lose momentum and gradually declined at the more competitive rank brackets. However, the buff to Elekk has reversed this direction, elevating Companion Hunter back to high play rates throughout ladder, including top legend. Face Hunter becomes more popular as you climb ladder, peaking at top legend, where its numbers rival Companion Hunter.

Token Druid has declined due to the nerf to Forest’s Gift, while Merithra Druid has seen increased play at top legend. Some experimentation with Azshara Druid has appeared, but the archetype has not gained serious traction.

Herald Rogue has slightly declined in play. It is the third most popular deck at top legend, behind the two Hunter decks. Since the emergence of Companion Hunter, it has lost its status of Hearthstone’s most favored deck.

The buffs to Leyline Mage have increased interest in the deck, but once again, the deck has lost all steam at top legend. This is usually an indication that the deck sucks, as top legend players are the first group of players who abandon a deck that underperforms. In other news, Burn Mage has reappeared, after lingering in low sample numbers for many weeks.

Spell Demon Hunter has declined across ladder, a response to the nerf to Hounds of Fury. We will have to see if this reaction is supported by the data and whether the deck is weaker in practice.

Dragon Warrior is another deck that has drastically declined in its numbers, as a result of the nerf to Darkrider.

Herald Shaman has slightly risen in play, likely due to a perceived good matchup against Companion Hunter.

Dude Paladin has fallen off, though some players continue to experiment with new builds. Aura Paladin is the popular choice in the class and maintains a small presence across ladder.

Nothing is happening that we have not talked about before when it comes to Priest, Death Knight and Warlock.

Matchup Win Rates Header

Power Rankings Header

vS Meta Score

vS Power Rankings Discussion

Hunter

  • The Elekk buff has successfully placed Companion Hunter in a competitive, balanced win rate at every level of play. All of its relevant matchups against competitive opponents now range between 45-55%. Its popularity is a function of its attractive playstyle, as well as its novelty. This has kept Companion Hunter’s play rate high even when it was a bad deck before the patch. We suspect that Class Sets will often cause this phenomenon, as players will look to try out the new things and neglect classes that did not get any new cards. These are “class moments”.
  • We hold a different view and see this as a drawback to Class Sets, to some degree. We can see a balanced format from a win rate perspective right in front of us. At top legend, no deck exceeds a 52% win rate and many sit within a ‘perfectly balanced’ range of 48-52%. Yet the format is not balanced from a play rate perspective.  The Hunter class is disproportionally popular to an extent the play experience is far more narrow. The average player constantly queues into Hunter and will likely grow weary of it. When strategic diversity is high and there is more “fun” stuff to do, players tend to spread out more.
  • Face Hunter is a stronger deck than Companion Hunter, but it may not be as strong as some anticipated considering it was untouched by the balance changes. This is the result of its slightly unfavored matchup against Companion Hunter.

Druid

  • Token Druid is more than fine following the patch. The deck remains a top performer at all levels of play. Its dominant matchup against Merithra Druid is an important factor in its ladder success.
  • Merithra Druid is doing okay, helped by the decline of Token Druid and a decent Companion Hunter matchup. However, Token Druid remains powerful, so if players go back to it, Merithra Druid may struggle more.

Rogue

  • Herald Rogue continues to be more popular than it is powerful. The Face Hunter matchup is rough, which dents its performance at top legend despite Rogue’s above average skill ceiling.

Mage

  • Leyline Mage has gotten better, but it is still not a competitive deck. Unlike Companion Hunter, it was so far away from a reasonable win rate that it needed aggressive buffs to have a chance. Those did not happen. In fact, the change to Crystallized Leyline did not even lead to the card becoming stronger.
  • Burn Mage looks competitive. It benefits from good matchups into Companion Hunter and (especially) Herald Rogue. However, it has a very difficult time dealing with aggressive decks, so its success might be field dependent in the future. It drops off at top legend due to the rise of Face Hunter in this bracket.
  • Quest Mage is another deck that enjoys slow matchups but struggles against aggression. The explosion of Companion Hunter at lower rank brackets has made life easier for it, while Face Hunter blocks a further rise in its win rate at higher levels of play.

Demon Hunter

  • Spell Demon Hunter remains one of the best decks in the game after the nerf. The continuing success of aggressive decks bodes well for its future.  The Companion Hunter matchup is now more difficult, but Demon Hunter does not mind queuing into it (50-50).

Warrior

  • Dragon Warrior did drop off a bit. Darkrider is still one of the best cards in the deck, but going first with Darkrider is no longer a massive win rate outlier as it was before the patch. You can still have a lot of success with the deck, but Merithra Druid and Spell Demon Hunter represent clear obstacles.

Shaman

  • The rise of Companion Hunter and the insistence on Control Priest at low MMR brackets has put Herald Shaman in a strong position. It is still not great at top legend, as it only beats Meritha Druid out of the top meta contenders, while struggling against others. Generally though, it is a better deck compared to before the patch.

Paladin

  • Dude Paladin is making serious improvements in its performance thanks to the emergence of a new build that cuts Acceleration Aura. When refined, it is comparable in power to Aura Paladin, so it can be a very strong deck at Diamond ranks and below.

Priest, Death Knight and Warlock

  • Nothing is going on here.

Class Analysis & Decklists

Death Knight | Demon Hunter | Druid | Hunter | Mage | Paladin | Priest | Rogue | Shaman | Warlock | Warrior

 


Data Reaper Report - Hunter

We have not seen a need to change the Companion Hunter build. Earthen Roar has become a more popular inclusion recently, but it does not look like a better inclusion than Animal Companion, which is often cut for it. Roar is more in line with Sands of Time in terms of power. Crazed Alchemist is another card often included yet is not mandatory.

As for Face Hunter, Tame Pet still looks better than Arrow Retriever by fueling Confront the Tol’vir. Glacial Shard is generally weak. Other cards that are not too bad are Sands of Time and Platysaur.

Data Reaper Report - Druid

The Merithra Druid build looks good. Heartroot Stones is possibly underrated. We might even consider running two copies of it over Press the Advantage or Horn of Plenty. Underking and Twilight Timereaver remain popular underperformers.

Forest’s Gift has gotten significantly weaker in Token Druid, though its inclusion is still okay.

Data Reaper Report - Rogue

The last few slots of Herald Rogue are matchup dependent. Nightmare Fuel, as we have mentioned in previous reports, is a strong card in the mirror matchup and was a good inclusion when Rogue dominated play rates, but this is no longer the case. Spymistress is a solid card against Face Hunter, which is a difficult matchup, but is not impressive in slower matchups. Sands of Time and Glacial Shard are more generic inclusions.

Twilight Mistress remains mandatory in the current format. It is far too strong against Companion Hunter to ever be cut.

Data Reaper Report - Mage

Quest Mage is making some adjustments meant to accelerate its quest completion. Creature of Madness, Q’onzu and Xavius are seeing more play, while First Flame and Smoldering Grove are making way. Sleet Storm is another optional cut.

Burn Mage looks solid thanks to good matchups against Companion Hunter and Herald Rogue. The featured build looks relatively clean. Once again, Vulcanos is proving itself to be a mandatory inclusion in this archetype.

Spell Demon Hunter has long been established. The Nespirah build is more competitive and equal in power to the vanilla build compared to the situation weeks ago. The nerf to Hounds of Fury has only slightly affected the card and did not significantly impact the deck.

Data Reaper Report - Warrior

The nerf to Darkrider has been noticeable in the data, but the 1-drop remains a top mulligan priority for Dragon Warrior. Living Flame is underrated in this deck.

Data Reaper Report - Shaman

Herald Shaman is enjoying a decent matchup against Companion Hunter. We simply do not understand why most builds run a single copy of Hex at best, while running two copies of Lightning Storm. Hex is still better than Storm in most matchups.

Data Reaper Report - Paladin

A new Dude Paladin build looks promising, drastically outperforming previous iterations. This list drops Acceleration Aura and runs a slightly faster curve. Resilient Savior is cut. This build is in line with Aura Paladin in terms of win rate, perhaps even slightly outperforming it.

Data Reaper Report - Priest

Data Reaper Report - Warlock



Hunter is having its ‘class moment’, so if you want to maximize your chances of beating it, Spell Demon Hunter is a good choice. The Companion Hunter matchup is now 50-50, but Demon Hunter remains clearly favored against Face Hunter. Warrior is the only class besides Demon Hunter that does not lose either Hunter matchup, but Demon Hunter’s overall matchup spread is stronger and more stable.

As we soon close three months of Cataclysm, we are nearing an expansion announcement, so keep an eye out for what is coming next in Hearthstone.


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