Welcome to the 1st edition of the Twist Data Reaper Report! This report discusses the Wonders format.
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Number of Games
|Diamond 4 to Legend||28,000|
|Diamond 10 to 5||70,000|
Class Frequency Discussion
It’s important to note that since the ladder multiplier for climbing was capped at 10 stars for the season, the population’s climb to legend has been much slower than what is normal for Standard. For the first half of the month, players who are sitting at Diamond 4 and above have an MMR comparable to top1k legend players in Standard. This is why the rank brackets we present for this report are different, merging all games past Diamond 4 as the highest MMR bracket.
It doesn’t take long to figure out from these graphs that this format is very imbalanced and doesn’t boast much strategic diversity. Once you enter Diamond ranks, you’ll be facing three classes most of the time. The meta narrows down further and further as you climb to higher MMR’s. Rogue, Warlock, Warrior, and Hunter make up over 90% of opponents past Diamond 5. Five classes simply do not exist at the highest levels. Just how bad is the current balance in the format? Answers later.
The most popular class in the game is Rogue, centered on its revitalized Jade package. There are two distinct approaches. The first is faster, running an early game pirate package with Patches, while counting on Jades alone for its late game scaling. The second is slower, running a C’Thun package alongside Jades to boast a stronger late game.
Discard Warlock is the most popular deck in the game, peaking at a play rate nearing and on pace to eclipse 30% at high MMR’s. This archetype looks very solidified except for a few card choices. Chamber of Viscidus has made a massive impact on the format.
Warrior is the third tip of the triangle, with Control Warrior rising to contest the two most dominant classes. C’Thun Warrior disappears at higher MMR’s. The popular Control Warrior centers on a bomb package for its win condition, with Blast from the Past and Iron Juggernaut offering late game inevitability alongside N’Zoth.
Hunter appears to be creeping up. Initial Undertaker Face Hunter builds are fading, while a different Face Hunter is gaining traction at higher MMR’s. This build runs an early game pirate package with Patches, but also a Trial of the Jormungars package with Acidmaw and Dreadscale. The deck has three cards it never wants to draw, since they’re only meant to be pulled from the deck, so it’s often called ‘Triple Patches Face Hunter’.
The meta seems to end with these four classes. As we’ve said earlier, Druid, Mage, Paladin, Priest, and Shaman have no meaningful representation past Diamond 5, which suggests that something is terribly wrong with them. Do these classes see play at lower ranks due to player obliviousness of the situation?
vS Meta Score
vS Power Rankings Discussion
Make no mistake, this is one of the most imbalanced formats we’ve ever seen in the history of the Data Reaper Report. The current iteration of Twist is completely whack. The power gap between the top four classes and the bottom five is enormous. There is simply no good reason to play anything beyond five decks.
The situation is so bad that during our work, we simply gave up on the bottom five classes. We couldn’t find a single, remotely competitive deck in their data. There was nothing to refine, so there’s no decklist that we can feature that isn’t hilariously terrible. You can get away with them at low MMR’s, but if you’re interested in climbing, playing them puts you at a gargantuan disadvantage. The only reason other classes do see play at lower MMR’s is that players don’t know the terrible truth. As a result, this report does not have sections for these classes. They might as well not exist.
- Rogue is an extremely broken and limiting class, to the point of statistical absurdity. To understand how dominant it is, simply look at its matchup spread. It is so utterly oppressive that it has helped delete most classes from the format, only leaving three other classes able to compete. What’s quite funny is that since Rogue has deleted any deck that cannot deal with it, the highest MMR bracket is strictly composed of decks that can handle it, or the mirror matchup. The result is that Rogue’s win rate drops under 50% at high MMR’s. Of course, this is not an indication that the class is remotely balanced. After all, if only one deck exists in a format, it’ll have a 50% win rate.
- Jade-Pirate and Jade-C’Thun exhibit similar overall power levels. Jade-Pirate is better in the faster matchups (Discard Warlock by 4-6%, Patches Hunter by 1-2%) and has a small edge in the direct mirror against Jade-C’Thun (1-3%), but Jade-C’Thun makes up for the deficit with a significantly better Warrior matchup (~10%). In fact, it is the only deck in the format that carries an advantage against Control Warrior.
- Rogue is currently the more popular class, but Warlock looks even more broken. As absurd as Rogue is, Discard Warlock is one of the most broken decks we’ve ever seen in any format in the game’s history. Its utter dominance of the field, including its advantage against Rogue, means that its win rate remains absurd even at the highest MMR’s. Control Warrior might have the smallest edge against it (~2%), while Patches Hunter looks like the only real counter. Chamber of Viscidus is just silly.
- Most of the balance talk has surrounded Rogue and Warlock, but Warrior looks like a big problem too judging by its domination of the field. The only deck that seems capable of beating it with any consistency is Jade-C’Thun Rogue. It holds close matchups with Jade-Pirate Rogue and Discard Warlock, while soundly beating the rising Patches Hunter.
- Patches Hunter should be considered the format’s meta breaking deck, as its ability to race to the opponent’s face with great effectiveness means it counters both Discard Warlock and Jade Rogue. This does come at the cost of losing to Warrior, but since Rogue and Warlock are far more popular, the math checks out in Hunter’s favor. It could be challenging Discard Warlock’s placement as the #1 best performing deck at high MMR’s. Trial of the Jormungars is an absurdly strong card and a big statistical outlier.
Class Analysis & Decklists
The most important note about Jade-Pirate Rogue is that Eviscerate is core to the deck. The card is most important in the Rogue mirror, as it helps you race. The Jade-C’Thun Rogue build is already quite refined and figured out. Azure Drake is the worst card in both decks, but we haven’t found an improvement on it (Acolyte of Pain doesn’t look that great either).
Discard Warlock seems to be pushed towards running more removal cards, such as Siphon Soul and Hellfire. Siphon Soul is very good in the mirror and against Warrior, while Hellfire is strong against Warlock, Hunter, and Rogue. Darkshire Librarian and Mortal Coil look weak and have low impact in key matchups.
The bomb build, pioneered by Team 5 designer Gallon, looks like the strongest direction for Control Warrior. The weakest card in this list is N’Zoth, since it is near useless in the faster matchups, but it’s the most important card in the mirror, so must be considered core. Emperor Thaurissan occasionally helps N’Zoth come down earlier.
The Trial of Jormungars Patches Hunter build from Corbett looks like Hunter’s key to success in the format. This allows Hunter to counter both Warlock and Rogue. The build does have a frustrating element to it if you happen to draw the wrong cards before pulling them from the deck. That might affect its ability to catch on.
With the Wonders XL format coming next month, balance changes are surely coming to address current issues. We would expect a long list of nerfs to cards from the top 4 classes. We are hoping that Warrior and Hunter are not skipped over. Even though a 40-life format would theoretically ‘weaken’ their primary win conditions, we wouldn’t count on it, especially with Warrior.
If you can dodge Warriors, you’ll have an easy climb with Hunter for the rest of this month. No deck can consistently beat Rogue and Warlock in the manner Hunter does.
Here’s hoping for a more balanced Wonders format in the month of October. If data allows, we’ll be back for report #2.
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