vS Data Reaper Report #305

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Welcome to the 305th edition of the Data Reaper Report!

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Class/Archetype Distribution | Class Frequency | Matchup Winrates | vS Power Rankings | vS Meta Score | Class Analysis & Decklists | Meta Breaker of the Week | How to Contribute | Credits


Number of Games

Overall 6,076,000
Top 1K Legend 52,000
Legend (Excluding Top 1k) 253,000
Diamond 4 to 1 331,000
Diamond 10 to 5 606,000
Platinum 788,000
Bronze/Silver/Gold 4,046,000

Class/Archetype Distribution

Class Frequency

Class Frequency Discussion

Our database’s number of games has exploded due to the relaunch of Hearthstone in China. It is the equivalent of Hearthstone launching two expansions at the same time, perhaps even more. This is undoubtedly good news for the game.

The nerfs to Big-Spell Mage have led to a drastic decline in the archetype’s play rate across the board, but it remains the most popular strategy in the format at Diamond and Legend ranks. A new, Galactic Orb variant has begun to pop up before the patch, but its popularity accelerated after. This is likely due to the nerf to Surfalopod, which this variant cuts.

Rainbow Death Knight dominates the class’ play rate at low ranks of ladder, but the class becomes increasingly diverse at higher levels of play. Blood-Ctrl and Frost Death Knight are noticeable, as well as new iterations of Reno Death Knight. The Blood variants are gone, replaced by Rainbow variants.

Druid hasn’t changed much. Reno Druid is the most popular archetype, followed by Dragon and Dungar Druid. At top legend, we see more of Spell-Damage Druid, with or without Owlonius.

Paladin is seeing significant changes, with Lynessa Paladin growing in popularity. At top legend, it’s now the second most popular deck. Before the patch, the Big-Spell Mage matchup was tough, so it’s not surprising to see this trend occurring. Handbuff Paladin sees modest play, while Showdown Paladin has disappeared.

Warlock’s popularity has risen, with Pain and Insanity Warlock exhibiting similar play rates across ladder. On paper, Insanity Warlock benefits more from a decline in Big-Spell Mage because of its poor matchup against it.

Shaman becomes more prominent as you climb ladder, with a sizeable top legend play rate that challenges the popular classes. The class is extremely diverse, but the tide could finally be changing when it comes to Rainbow Shaman. This archetype, which has consistently been ignored by players despite showing great promise for the last few weeks, is finally breaking out at top legend. Big and Reno Shaman are the most notable alternatives.

Pirate Demon Hunter enjoys a sizeable play rate across ladder, surpassing its niche rival in Pain Warlock. Demon Hunter is the most homogenous class in the format, with nothing else going on.

Reno Warrior is extremely popular at Platinum and Gold and below, while remaining remarkably popular at Diamond and Legend ranks. The class is branching out, with Mech Warrior gaining serious traction for the first time, joining Odyn Warrior as another non-Reno option for the class.

Rogue is generally very messy. Weapon Rogue is the most stable deck in the class, with Mech Rogue recently emerging too. Other decks are… not worth mentioning.

Priest is generally a fringe class, until Overheal Priest becomes a serious player at top legend. Zarimi Priest does see some play at lower ranks (contribution of China), but disappears at higher rank brackets.

Interest in Hunter is low across ladder. There are 4 different archetypes that players don’t care much about.

Matchup Win Rates Header

Power Rankings Header

vS Meta Score

vS Power Rankings Discussion

Mage

  • Big-Spell Mage’s performance has significantly declined outside of legend, while remaining unchanged at legend. It’s not difficult to explain this. The deck has undoubtedly gotten weaker, with its power relaxing for the large majority of players. At higher levels of play, players are more effective at targeting decks in general. With Big-Spell Mage’s play rate on the decline, there is less incentive to target it at the expense of other matchups, so even though it’s a worse deck in a vacuum, it’s facing a more comfortable field. Note that Big-Spell Mage’s play rate could settle near a 10% play rate at top legend when the dust settles.
  • The balance changes were clearly successful at curbing the deck, without outright killing it. There are plenty of decks on ladder that perform at the same level or better, but Big-Spell Mage remains very popular. This supports the notion that its popularity was not just a function of its power, but there’s a strong audience for its playstyle.

Death Knight

  • Rainbow Death Knight exhibits a reasonable power level that gradually diminishes as you climb ladder and face more strategies that can be considered top meta contenders. It thrives against Pirate DH and Pain Warlock, but is very vulnerable against Mage, Paladin and Druid.
  • Blood-Ctrl Death Knight’s defensive prowess makes it better positioned against some classes that Rainbow DK struggles against, but it’s even more vulnerable to strong late game lethality. At top legend, it is superior to Rainbow DK thanks to better Paladin/Priest/Shaman matchups.
  • Frost Death Knight is generally the strongest Death Knight deck, since it’s the most effective at early game pressure, which circumvents the class’ late game weaknesses.
  • Reno Death Knight is proving to be surprisingly stronger than both Rainbow and Blood-Ctrl DK. Reno gives Death Knight defensive sturdiness which is very important in some late game oriented matchups, yet its Rainbow build provides it with some proactivity that it didn’t have as a full Blood runes deck.

Druid

  • Reno Druid’s strengths and weaknesses haven’t changed. It’s a well-rounded deck against most of the field, with specific hard counters in Warlock and Demon Hunter that keep it down. There are a couple of other poor matchups that could rise in play too (Rainbow Shaman, Mech Rogue), so we don’t expect its standing in the format to improve.
  • Dragon Druid continues to look underwhelming. It faces the same issues as Reno Druid when it comes to aggressive decks, but the absence of Reno makes it vulnerable to some of the slower strategies too, where Reno is very valuable (such as Lynessa Paladin).
  • The absence of Reno can also be felt in Dungar Druid’s matchup spread, though the bigger issue facing the deck is that it gets countered by Reno as a card. Add its weakness to aggression and it’s understandable why it doesn’t perform too well.
  • Spell-Damage Druid exhibits competitive potential at higher levels of play, with strong matchups into slow decks that lack a pressure plan.

Paladin

  • Lynessa Paladin is now a top tier deck across ladder. The Big-Spell Mage matchup has become 50-50, perhaps with a tiny Paladin edge at top legend. A turn 5 Skyla was the main reason why Lynessa Paladin couldn’t handle Mage well, with the extra turn giving it more time to answer its blow out play. The deck does have a few hard matchups, but they’re not too common, giving it the room to excel.
  • Handbuff Paladin is solid, but falls off at top legend because it gets hard countered by the increasingly popular Lynessa Paladin.

Shaman

  • Rainbow Shaman is the best performing deck across all of ladder. It’s not particularly close, though we suspect the top legend gap may shrink over time. It seems that the main way of stopping Rainbow Shaman is to equip a strong removal toolkit. Otherwise, the deck is very comfortable facing any opponent, with a very strong matchup spread at all levels of play. With the deck finally showing signs of gaining traction, we suspect it will become a more prominent and recognizable force in the format.
  • Big Shaman continues to excel, with its strong removal toolkit allowing it to counter Rainbow Shaman. It also has a great matchup against Lynessa Paladin, so it performs well against several decks that are trending up. Much like Rainbow Shaman, the way to beat it is through removal, but its slower playstyle makes it inferior to Rainbow Shaman due to matchups that reward pressure, such as Reno Druid.
  • Reno Shaman is decent, sitting at Tier 2 throughout most of ladder. The top legend field is more hostile to the deck, dropping it to Tier 3. This is the best Reno Shaman has looked in a very long time, with some room for improvement through refinement. The Big-Spell Mage nerfs were very helpful for the deck’s standing.
  • Evolve Shaman is also quite strong, but seems overshadowed by the superior Rainbow Shaman.

Warlock

  • Druid and Mage are not as popular as they were before the patch, but they’re still popular classes, which gives Pain Warlock room for success. The deck struggles into some of the rising decks in the format, such as Rainbow Shaman and Lynessa Paladin, so we don’t think it can become the #1 performer in this format at any rank bracket. It’s been matchup-dependent for a while, as it has a polarizing matchup spread.
  • Insanity Warlock is strong, without being amazing. The Mage nerfs were helpful in a vacuum, but the rise of Lynessa Paladin and Rainbow Shaman may prove to be a big problem, as these matchups are very difficult. The deck should remain good going forward, but we don’t think it can become one of the very best things to do.

Warrior

  • Mech Warrior is finally looking like a competitive deck, with a solid win rate that is close to 50%. Some of its builds are very weak, so once it cleans up its card choices, we expect to see improvement that should help it hit a positive win rate in some rank brackets. It’s not expected to be a powerhouse, but it should be solid enough to see good success with.
  • Odyn Warrior continues to display competitive potential at top legend, but the deck may have gotten worse after the patch. This may sound strange, as Big-Spell Mage is one of its worst matchups, but Lynessa Paladin is almost as bad. The deck gets completely countered by Divine Brew. It’s very dependent on dodging its horrible matchups.
  • Have you ever seen a deck with a 100 Frequency Score and a 0 Power Score? Reno Warrior has managed to accomplish that in Platinum. Most popular deck. 43% win rate. No matter where you are on ladder, it’s absolute garbage.

Demon Hunter

  • Same story for Pirate Demon Hunter as we’ve discussed in previous reports. Very strong into Druid. Very strong into Mage. Strong into the terrible Reno Warrior. Good against Pain Warlock, the other deck that targets these classes. However, other matchups aren’t good. At top legend, it’s unfavored into every other meta contender, so it can feel inconsistent if you don’t run into your bread and butter.

Rogue

  • Weapon Rogue is solid, but has gotten significantly worse after the patch at top legend. It’s a similar story to other decks you’d think would benefit from the decline of Big-Spell Mage. Many of the decks emerging in the post-patch format are tough matchups for Weapon Rogue. Rainbow Shaman, for example, completely destroys Weapon Rogue.
  • Mech Rogue looks strong. You can think of it as a Pirate DH/Pain Warlock type of deck, which finds success by hunting Druids and Mages, but one that isn’t as weak to AOE effects. This is part of the reason it’s stronger than Demon Hunter and Warlock at top legend. It definitely has major weaknesses in its matchup spread, with its Shaman matchups potentially becoming a bigger problem over the next week, but so far so good.
  • Other Rogue decks look completely unplayable.

Priest

  • Overheal Priest remains top tier at top legend. It has a strong matchup against Rainbow Shaman, so it might be able to challenge it for the #1 spot. Interestingly, both decks tend to get countered by removal, so the format at higher levels of play might become slower over time in response to these decks’ elite performance levels.
  • Zarimi Priest’s post-patch prospects are looking weak. The deck is completely redundant with other aggressive decks looking superior. Reno Priest is the worst deck in the game, by far.

Hunter

  • The lack of interest in the Hunter class is somewhat justified, as none of its strategies look particularly good. Token Hunter is solid , but doesn’t have a strong case to see more play considering Pain Warlock and Pirate Demon Hunter perform its role better. Secret Hunter is strong at low rank brackets but falls off hard on the climb. Egg and Reno Hunter show that the class’ late game plans are outmatched.

Class Analysis & Decklists

Death Knight | Demon Hunter | Druid | Hunter | Mage | Paladin | Priest | Rogue | Shaman | Warlock | Warrior

 


Data Reaper Report - Mage

Big-Spell Mage has split into two variants, a process that started before the patch but accelerated after the nerf to Surfalopod.

The original Surfalopod build is still competitive. A few adjustments to the deck have been made. Wandmaker is being swapped for Scarab Keychain as an early game enabler for Greedy Partner. Under the Sea is in the process of getting cut, while Instrument Tech is also out of fashion. Norgannon is proving to be a strong card at the 6-mana slot, while Sleet Skater is showing great promise in the alternative variant of the archetype.

The Orb build cuts Surfalopod, freeing up the deck to run cheaper spells, though we question the inclusion of Reverberation, which is performing poorly. The cheaper spell that makes it worthwhile is Rising Waves, which is an incredible card against aggressive decks (especially Pirate DH). Another strong board clear is Star Power. Primordial Glyph isn’t particularly strong but can help us fuel Orb.

What we noticed from the Orb build is that it’s encouraged to be greedier, especially when Rising Waves shores up the early game. Cards such as Kalecgos and Marin become legitimate options. The Orb build is less about the blow out potential in the mid-game, while having more sustained pressure over the course of a longer game.

We do estimate that the Orb build is currently slightly stronger than the Surfalopod build, which is the result of the Surfalopod nerf.

The name of the game is to get greedy. Late game lethality becomes more important when the format is slower, a result of the Skyla nerf giving opponents an extra turn.

Rainbow Death Knight benefits from re-adding Climactic Necrotic Explosion. This gives the deck a stronger clock on opponents thanks to its synergy with Corpsicle.

Frost Death Knight wants to run Corpsicle to increase its damage potential. The card has some diminishing returns with Marrow Manipulator, so hasn’t been a commonly successful choice until now.

Blood-Ctrl Death Knight is cutting Dirty Rat. Rat isn’t particularly useful in this format. It’s mostly good against decks that aren’t very popular.

Reno Death Knight looks strong, after switching to a Rainbow build rather than a Blood build. This gives it more room for proactivity and kill threat.

Data Reaper Report - Druid

The only change we’re making to Reno Druid is adding ETC for Aviana, then putting Aviana inside ETC. Aviana can be a game changer in grindy matchups, but weak in faster ones. Second copies of New Heights and Crystal Cluster are situationally strong. Take Cluster if you’re slamming ETC on turn 4. Take New Heights if you want more mana in a slow matchup and don’t need Aviana for the extended fatigue clock.

Dragon Druid is resorting to 7-mana Doomkins to handle the greedier late game in this format. The deck isn’t doing too well.

Dungar Druid has split into two variants. The first variant is the same one we featured before the patch. We added a 2nd copy of Oaken Summons for early game consistency of cheating out Gloomstone Guardian and roadblocking aggressions, replacing a copy of Sleep Under the Stars.

Spell Damage Druid is competitive at top legend. Owlonius is not mandatory and can be replaced alongside a Sparkling Phial with a couple of Chia Drakes.

Data Reaper Report - Paladin

Lynessa Paladin can afford to cut Prismatic Beam in this format, adding as much late game as possible to its build. The best way to emphasize its new focus is by noting the performance of Griftah. Before the patch, the card looked like a liability. Now, it looks quite decent. For the Demon Hunter matchup, your strongest counterplay involves Mixologist finding you an AOE spell.

Handbuff Paladin is making successful changes to its build. Air Guitarist and Acolyte of Pain look strong in the deck. Guitarist being good in this format isn’t surprising, as it can be considered a greedy card despite its cheap cost. It’s strong in slower matchups, when we have more time to take advantage of the extra buffs it provides us.

Data Reaper Report - Warlock

Pain Warlock wants to be even more lethal than it already is, which is why players have added Leeroy Jenkins to the deck. Based on its performance, it’s looking like a hit. Against slower decks, extra reach can be game winning. Interestingly, Cursed Souvenir has become a better card too. We don’t value spell disruption in this format. Big-Spell Mage numbers aren’t as insane as they were before, so Cult Neophye and Speaker Stomper are not necessary.

For Insanity Warlock, it’s all about late game, so Fizzle and Symphony are added.

Data Reaper Report - Shaman

We adjusted Reno Shaman to be stronger defensively, with more removal. Its late game can’t be improved, but if it can deal with certain threats better (such as casting Hex on a Pipsi), it should perform better.

We did notice that Hex has become a stronger card in this format, which is why double Gift makes sense in Big Shaman now. Gift used to be that 30th card we couldn’t improve on, but now it’s a solid choice for the deck. We dropped Kologarn.

Rainbow Shaman is the strongest performer in the format across all of ladder. Recent builds have dropped Jive. Needlerock Totem is the 31st best card in the deck, missing out to Thrall’s Gift.

Incindius Shaman may have competitive potential. Most of its builds are unplayable, but adding Baking Soda Volcano helps a lot, as well as cutting Cactus Cutter (which works poorly with Hagatha).

Turbulus looks like a good card in Elemental Shaman, but players are not interested.

Data Reaper Report - Warrior

We’re now very confident that Verse Riff is not needed in Odyn Warrior. The deck performs better without it. The featured build looks clean. All You Can Eat isn’t great. Aftershocks is very important in some matchups. Ignis is interchangeable with a 2nd copy of Stoneskin Armorer.

Mech Warrior is legit. The featured build works best. Zilliax and Chemical Spill take care of faster matchups, with Town Crier’s sole purpose to find us Zilliax as soon as possible. Testing Dummy is our win condition for slower matchups. In combination with Cubicle, Wreck‘em and Wrench, this deck can dish out a ton of damage. Brawls can be added for stronger defenses, but it requires giving up some late game, which we’re not interested in doing in this format.

We’ve made one change to Pirate Demon Hunter, which is swapping out Kayn for Metamorphosis. It looks like a clear upgrade.

Data Reaper Report - Rogue

Mech Rogue looks strong, taking the Maestra route to fit in some early game pressure cards that can also activate Velarok.

One change to Weapon Rogue, which is cutting ‘Oh, Manager’ to fit in Tar Slick. This helps the deck in faster matchups. We advise against cutting Stick Up.

Data Reaper Report - Priest

Deafen looks like a good card in Overheal Priest. It’s strong for the same reason Hex has become a strong option for Shaman. Silence and transform effects are effective against some common threats, with the main one being Pipsi. But Deafen is also great in the mirror matchup, so it makes a lot of sense at top legend.

Thrive in the Shadows has been relatively weak for a while. The deck can cut it without adverse effects.

Data Reaper Report - Hunter

Hunter has been quiet this week. Besides building a new list for Token Hunter, we haven’t found much else to do. The Token Hunter list is all about early game pressure, because the class isn’t in a good spot if it gets dragged into the late game. The fall of Reno and Egg Hunter are indicators of that.



Finally, players are paying attention to Rainbow Shaman’s elite standing in the format. This deck is great into many different strategies. The main strategies that can frustrate it are highly defensive decks that can deal with both Razzle-Dazzler and the burst damage enabled by Horn of the Windlord. Overheal Priest is the other, unique counter.

However, even in these matchups, good planning can go a long way and Rainbow Shaman has plenty of agency. Unlike many of the faster decks in this format, Rainbow Shaman’s performance does not seem to diminish at higher levels of play.

So far, this format has the potential to be very diverse and relatively balanced. There is an abundance of different playstyles available to players of different tastes. There is no deck that doesn’t have some answers to it.

Next week, we’re on break. There is a good reason why. It will make sense, eventually.


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