Welcome to the 306th edition of the Data Reaper Report! This is the first report for The Great Dark Beyond.
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Class/Archetype Distribution | Class Frequency | Matchup Winrates | vS Power Rankings | vS Meta Score | Class Analysis & Decklists | Meta Breaker of the Week | How to Contribute | Credits
Number of Games
Overall | 1,635,000 |
Top 1K Legend | 129,000 |
Legend (Excluding Top 1k) | 488,000 |
Diamond 4 to 1 | 166,000 |
Diamond 10 to 5 | 251,000 |
Platinum | 194,000 |
Bronze/Silver/Gold | 407,000 |
Class/Archetype Distribution
Class Frequency
Reminder: The graphs in the report are screenshots. You can see all the data, hover over graphs for more information, and select additional bracket filters, in the original tableau files on the website. Clicking on the screenshots in the report, or navigating through the website toolbar, gets you there.
Class Frequency Discussion
Elemental Mage has been the standout deck of the first week of The Great Dark Beyond, boosted by the new Fire Elemental cards in the set. It is, by far, the most popular deck on ladder across all rank brackets. Big-Spell Mage, running no new cards, becomes increasingly popular at legend, where Elemental Mage takes a small step back.
Quasar Rogue has made a lot of noise, with an explosive playstyle that has drawn a lot of criticism due to the absence of meaningful interaction with the opponent and OTK’s occurring as early as turn 4. The build that has gained traction is focused on burn from direct damage spells, supported by Ethereal Oracle. However, at legend, Quasar is rapidly losing steam while a different Rogue deck takes over. Gaslight Rogue has dropped Gaslight Gatekeeper and is now focused on Robocaller/’Everything Must Go’ blowing out opponents in the early game, while Playhouse Giants and Incindius represent its late game. Therefore, we now call it Cycle Rogue.
Death Knight is splintered into several different approaches. Reno DK seems to be the most popular one, with Maladaar enabling early Reno blowouts. Starship Death Knight has been experimenting with different rune alignments. It is the only Starship deck that has carved out a sizeable presence in the format. Frost, Blood and Vanilla Rainbow decks see modest play.
Starship Druid has not made an impact. Instead, a Hydration Station Druid deck only running Arkonite Defense Crystal with Oaken Summons is seeing the most play in the class. Spell-Damage Druid becomes more popular at top legend, where it is establishing itself as a format pillar. Dungar Druid’s presence is small. Reno Druid is struggling to stick around.
Current Evolve Shaman is a product of Rainbow Shaman merging with Wave of Nostalgia. The deck is gradually gaining traction on a daily basis. Spell-Damage Shaman is a new strategy that runs 28 old cards and Ethereal Oracle, focused on burn that is supported by spell damage minions. Asteroid Shaman is split between initial control variants, as well as more recent faster variants.
Libram Paladin seems to have fallen flat, failing to establish a competitive presence and is in the process of fading away. Pipsi Paladin, the original competitive Lynessa Paladin deck, is the only one that seems to be gaining some momentum in the class.
Odyn Warrior is the primary archetype of its class, with Hostile Invader becoming a key addition. The presence of Reno and Mech Warrior is small. Draenei Warrior never took off.
Egg Hunter is the sole, real representative of its class. Some old Token and Secret Hunter decks are floundering. Starship Hunter is in decline.
Overheal Priest, centered on Anchorite, is going through a refinement process that sees it gradually rise in play. Zarimi and a new Pain Priest deck are just beginning to gain traction. Defensive Priest decks are showing no signs of life. Priest is solely an aggressive class.
Wheel Warlock is being experimented with, but the deck exhibits a concerning decline in its popularity at legend, suggesting it may not be very good. Pain and Insanity Warlock have almost completely disappeared.
Demon Hunter is not holding people’s interest. Nothing’s going on here besides players trying to answer the question on whether the Starship package is worth running in Pirate DH or not.
vS Meta Score
vS Power Rankings Discussion
The emerging format is largely dominated by old decks, some of them receiving a small number of additions, some of them ignoring the new set altogether. The new archetypes that have been promoted in this set have proven to be underpowered, some nowhere near a competitive level. Many novelties come down to a single neutral card in Ethereal Oracle. This is a first report of an expansion that has left us somewhat unemployed. We didn’t need to do a lot of intensive refinement work. There is no recent discovery that’s about to “shake up” the format. In fact, we’re currently witnessing a consolidation process that may leave players feeling like we’ve just experienced a mini-set launching, rather than an expansion.
Mage
- Elemental Mage is proving to be a strong deck and a Tier 1 performer across ladder, including top legend, where its strong matchups into Big-Spell Mage and Rogue are keeping it relevant. However, its matchup spread is hardly dominant, and it did benefit from stomping on bad decks at launch. Many of the top performing decks in the current meta do not fear running into an Elemental Mage. It’s got plenty of good answers that are rising in response to its popularity. As it stands, it’s declining in both performance and prevalence.
- Big-Spell Mage is a powerful deck in the current format despite running no new cards. It is largely checked by its oppressive matchup against Elemental Mage. Another effective and popular answer to it are fast Shaman decks that either snowball the board or burn it down. However, in the event of nerfs to these decks, its matchup spread looks concerning. Without a high presence of Elemental Mage, Big-Spell Mage would sit close to the very top of the table across ladder.
Rogue
- Quasar Rogue is not a good Hearthstone deck, to the relief of many players who have quickly grown to dislike its extreme play patterns. It is relatively skill intensive, but not to the point it is a serious top legend threat. Instead of exhibiting a win rate in the high 30’s, it manages to get close to a 45% win rate at top legend. There are no signs of further improvement too, with the deck currently in the process of disappearing from high level play, faster than it is declining at lower ranks.
- Cycle Rogue, on the other hand, is a top legend threat. The deck looks powerful, with the potential of further improvement through some better card choices. Much like Big-Spell Mage, Cycle Rogue is held back by its Elemental Mage matchup, as well as fast Shaman decks. Otherwise, it would look much more dominant.
Death Knight
- Reno Death Knight is reasonably strong and exhibits a balanced matchup spread, but it does tend to have a more difficult time against some of the strongest decks on ladder. Spell-Damage Druid is its biggest problem, as it represents a form of late game lethality that is difficult to stop. A heavy handed patch, in which multiple top tier decks are gutted, could send it to the front of the queue.
- Frost Death Knight is very powerful and underrated, perhaps due to a slow refinement process that has yet to catch up. The inclusion of Ethereal Oracle is not unanimous, when it absolutely should be. When fully refined, the deck is an elite performer with great matchups into Mage and Shaman.
- Starship Death Knight is the best starship deck, which got it a bit hyped at some point. It’s got some refining to do, but even at peak potential, the deck is mediocre. It also gets completely destroyed by Reno Death Knight, for a reason that is probably obvious to you. Its main claim to fame is a good matchup against Pipsi Paladin, which looks like a rarity.
- Rainbow Death Knight is very unrefined, but a vanilla build (no starships) could be “okay”. Blood-Ctrl Death Knight, on the other hand, looks hopeless.
Druid
- Station Druid, which is a scuffed starship deck that only runs one starship piece and no other starship synergies, looks weak. This deck did get some hype early on, but its matchup spread doesn’t give it many chances for consistent success. Struggles against Mage, the good Rogue deck, Shaman and Hunter. There are ways to improve the deck, but we don’t think it will be enough to overcome its matchup deficiencies.
- Dungar Druid does a little better currently, but faces a similarly horrendous time when playing against some of these top performing decks. It can’t be expected to perform at a strong level in a settled format, especially when it has no room to improve through refinement.
- Spell-Damage Druid is increasingly stronger at higher levels of play, with a relatively high skill ceiling. With Quasar Rogue flopping, it represents the strongest late game lethality in the format, forcing all other strategies to pressure it. It has a strong matchup into Elemental Mage and slower Death Knight decks. However, there are 4 top meta decks that currently keep it in check, preventing it from becoming a Tier 1 performer. All of them do it by developing overwhelming stats in a single turn (Big-Spell Mage, Cycle Rogue, Evolve Shaman and Overheal Priest). Nerfs to those decks and their blowout turns would make Spell-Damage Druid a scarier proposition.
Shaman
- While Elemental Mage performs well, we think Evolve Shaman is the strongest aggressive deck in the game. What’s alarming is that its common builds are very clearly suboptimal in their card choices, with 4 cards that represent weights on its ankles, so it’s expected to get even better once it hits final form. Its snowballing capabilities are second to none. The only decks that can counter it are characterized by elite board clearing capabilities. You’re either looking at defensive turtles like Odyn Warrior, or Ethereal Oracle/Malted Magma decks. If you can’t clear boards at a consistent ferocity, you’re unfavored against Evolve Shaman.
- Spell-Damage Shaman replaces Wave of Nostalgia with burn. This is made possible thanks to the addition of Ethereal Oracle. Its matchup against Evolve Shaman and most other aggressive decks is strong thanks to Oracle/Magma. Its burn-based game plan is very effective against decks that don’t have a lot of life gain, but it clearly struggles against decks that do. Thankfully for Shaman players, these decks aren’t too common, so Spell-Damage Shaman enjoys a Tier 1 performance level across ladder.
- Asteroid Shaman’s horrendous win rate is attributed to late-game-oriented builds that have seen heavy experimentation at launch and clearly flopped. However, recent builds that are clearly inspired by the success of Spell-Damage Shaman and Ethereal Oracle are beginning to see more play. While we’re not convinced they perform at the same level as Evolve or Spell-Damage Shaman, we believe their potential would safely place them at Tier 2.
Paladin
- We were right, for the wrong reasons. Libram Paladin has flopped, but Paladin is the strongest class in the game regardless! While there are plenty of strong decks out there, Pipsi Paladin stands above the rest. It doesn’t just display an elite win rate across ladder, but is nearly impossible to counter. Every deck in the format has a clear weakness, except his one. Besides a slight, yet amusing vulnerability to starships, Pipsi Paladin either beats or goes even with every top meta contender out there.
- Pipsi Paladin is expected to remain elite regardless of meta trends, because nothing out there is a real threat to its dominance. This is why it’s establishing itself as the strongest deck at top legend. We expect this deck to blow up over the coming week, as it is the true potential tyrant of the format. Not Mage. Not Shaman. Not Rogue. The final boss of the first week of the expansion is Pipsi Painthoof. Remember the name.
- Handbuff Paladin is another decent deck in the format that runs zero new cards, so we doubt it will gain much traction.
Warrior
- Odyn Warrior was the best deck at top legend in the first couple of days of the expansion. The reason is that it dominates Elemental Mage and Quasar Rogue. However, since then, other strategies have emerged that give it a very hard time. Big-Spell Mage completely cripples it in the most lopsided matchup in the format (80-20). The Pipsi Paladin matchup is nearly as bad (70-30). Cycle Rogue is also surprisingly difficult due to Incindius’ damage potential when paired with Sonya. Strong Shaman matchups are not enough to cancel this out, so Odyn Warrior may end up falling to Tier 3 at top legend over the next week.
- Reno and Mech Warrior look decent at lower ranks, but hit a wall at higher levels of play that relegates them to fringe options that we can’t recommend.
Hunter
- Egg Hunter looks decent and competitive. It’s one deck that has managed to successfully incorporate a new package of cards to its build. Its matchup spread suggests a limit on its potential in the current format, as it tends to struggle against some of the top meta contenders. However, a drastic balance patch that cripples these strategies could leave an opening for Egg Hunter to thrive. We think this deck might be flying under the radar in balance considerations because it’s sitting inside a deeper layer of an onion that’s likely getting peeled. Keep an eye out for this one.
- Some players at lower ranks of ladder may have felt that Starship Hunter was a competitive option for them. The good news is that it’s indeed the second best performing starship deck and it’s not as horrible as other starship decks. The bad news is that it is still hopelessly outclassed by established strategies. There’s no path for it to compete in the current format.
Priest
- Overheal Priest has successfully transitioned from an Injured Hauler/Hedanis combo strategy, into an aggressive Anchorite strategy. This is one deck that feels distinctly different this expansion. The deck is vulnerable to board clears, but represents the strongest counter to Spell-Damage Druid, which might help it find a clear role in the top legend field, especially when its Rogue matchup is decent too.
- Zarimi and Pain Priest are two archetypes that have been gaining some traction in the last couple of days and offer the class additional aggressive options. Both of them display Tier 1 potential. Orbital Halo is a big boost to Zarimi Priest, while Ethereal Oracle is turning Hot Coals into a powerful card in Pain Priest. We’re not sure how popular they can get, considering their playstyle and class, but they’re clearly very strong.
- Unfortunately, Control Priest decks are utterly hopeless without a meaningful late game.
Warlock
- Warlock might be the worst class in the game. Pain and Insanity Warlock are missing in action, while players are coping on Wheel Warlock, which is an objectively weak deck without any redeeming qualities. It is likely to disappear, leaving the class with nothing else.
Demon Hunter
- Pirate Demon Hunter is competitive, there are better aggressive decks out there and it’s out of fashion. Even though it can technically be called a “starship” deck now, its playstyle is not any different to what it’s done before. Players seeking a starship deck are certainly not looking to flood the board with pirates.
Class Analysis & Decklists
Death Knight | Demon Hunter | Druid | Hunter | Mage | Paladin | Priest | Rogue | Shaman | Warlock | Warrior
Elemental Mage has taken over ladder with the build we featured in our theorycrafting article. We wouldn’t change a single card in the list. Some players suggest cutting Saruun for being slow, but Saruun is a very important card in the deck’s worst matchups. It gives you the best chance of beating Odyn Warrior and other decks that look to sustain through your pressure, such as Reno Death Knight.
Big-Spell Mage is a little more nuanced. Early AOE effects such as Rising Waves and Heat Wave are not too important, as aggressive decks beyond Elemental Mage aren’t common. Star Power seems to take care of most necessary business.
Good 2 mana cards are hard to find (Glyph is quite bad), so we’ve opted for the aggressive Cult Neophyte to mess up Rogues. We can see a greedy format in which Audio Splitter starts to make sense too. Copying Projection Orb makes late game matchups a lot easier. Gold Panner is the default choice.
Reverberation looks good enough in the current meta, as there are plenty of good targets for it. Norgannon is mandatory. Projection Orb should be included in the main list, as we don’t rely on Skyla to cheat out Tsunami anymore.
Quasar Rogue works best as a burn deck. We play Quasar, then pair Oracle/Thalnos with burn to kill our opponent in one turn. Most of our deck costs 0 mana after Quasar, so it’s even possible to kill the opponent on the same turn we play Quasar. We run every single spell that can go face, even if it has no real synergy in the deck (Harmonic Hip Hop).
Cycle Rogue is basically old Gaslight Rogue that has dropped Gaslight Gatekeeper for a Mech package. Pit Stop finds us Robocaller, which we can play instantly to draw three 8-mana cards and tutor ‘Everything Must Go!’. Make sure to do this alongside other draw effects so that EMG costs no mana. This is our strongest line of play in faster matchups. Promo-Drake is there as a third 8 mana card that we just trade away. Do not run Zilliax in this deck, as it messes up your Pit Stop consistency.
Incindius offers us a win condition against decks that have a strong removal toolkit that can deal with our giants. If we Shadowstep Incindius, we can play it next turn alongside Sonya and a Mini-Scoundrel to copy it.
The Reno Death Knight build from our theorycrafting article has performed very well. We’ve made two changes to the deck. Eredar Brute has underperformed to expectations due to an absence of board flooding aggressive decks. Marin looks weak, with the deck already possessing a strong late game without it. Helya is a game changer against Warrior and Rogue. Mind Control Tech is incredible in slow matchups.
Starship Death Knight seems okay through two slightly different approaches of similar power levels. A UUB build with Assimilating Blight and Soul Searching looks to find more Soulbound Spires and Arkonite Defense Crystals to stack inside a starship. A Rainbow build utilizes Reska as a secondary payoff alongside Yelling Yodeler and Guiding Figure.
Frost Death Knight is taking a page out of the book of every burn deck and running Ethereal Oracle. Two copies of Malted Magma are not as common as they should be. Razzle-Dazzler looks weak and unimportant. There are no matchups that indicate a need for it. This leads us to cut Natural Talent, with Leeroy Jenkins offering us more burn.
Vanilla Rainbow Death Knight is extremely unrefined, but the featured build looks better than aggregated data suggests. Still, not as good as Reno or Frost DK.
- Death Knight Class Radar
- Reno Death Knight
- Starship Death Knight
- Frost Death Knight
- Rainbow Death Knight
Spell-Damage Druid looks strong thanks to the additional of Ethereal Oracle. Covert Artist is not a popular card, but it’s highly recommended. The best build is basically the one we featured in our theorycrafting article, with the 30th card being either Innervate or Rising Waves.
Station Druid is centered on Arkonite Defense Crystal and its tutoring potential with Oaken Summons. Our goal is to resurrect a Crystal Starship and Zilliax with Hydration Station, with Kil’jaeden acting as a secondary win condition.
We suspect that current lists are not optimal. Mistah Vistah doesn’t seem to carry its weight alongside Rising Waves, which is underperforming across multiple archetypes. Meanwhile, Carnivorous Cubicle and Mind Control Tech look extremely powerful, to the point we’re wondering whether this archetype’s true potential is hidden.
Dungar Druid is a solid deck. We made one change to the list from our theorycrafting article. Beach Whale goes out. Sleep Under the Stars goes in.
Evolve Shaman looks extremely powerful, but we don’t think it’s found its final form yet. Just like in Death Knight, Razzle-Dazzler seems sluggish and unnecessary. Horn of the Windlord is also a very questionable card. It seems that players have merged Rainbow Shaman with Wave of Nostalgia without much thought to synergies. There is no reason to run two copies of Horn when we’re not running Turn the Tides or Skirting Death.
What we should be doing instead is taking advantage of Ethereal Oracle’s incredible synergy with Malted Magma and Patches the Pilot. We now have more reload, we find Wave of Nostalgia more often, while our ability to wipe the opponent’s board to mount a comeback is possible. This should be pivotal in Shaman mirrors too.
Perhaps, Spell-Damage Shaman provided some inspiration for these developments in Evolve Shaman. Pioneered by our very own D0nkey, this deck drops Wave of Nostalgia for more burn. The featured build drops Spirit Claws and adds a Tourist package, which looks very promising based on preliminary results.
Asteroid Shaman looks terrible, but a more aggressive direction exhibits more promise. WorldEight’s build looks like the best direction for the archetype. No Meteor Storm. A burn-centric shell like the one found in Spell-Damage Shaman. A curated spell pool for Ethereal Oracle to tutor and leverage. Asteroids work if they’re drawn by Magatha. We cut Miracle Salesman for Bloodmage Thalnos and one copy of Spirit Claws.
Ethereal Oracle gives Pipsi Paladin additional draw and consistency in finding its direct damage spells. We don’t like running more than one copy of Prismatic Beam for that reason, especially when Elemental Mage is the only popular deck that tends to flood the board. We like Mixologist but couldn’t find space for it with both Robocaller and Oracle looking so good. Lumia becomes progressively stronger as you climb ladder. She becomes completely mandatory at top legend.
Handbuff Paladin looks okay, running no new cards.
Odyn Warrior dominated the first couple of days, with most players running the list from our theorycrafting article. We would make one tweak to the deck, which is swapping out Slam for Stoneskin Armorer. Slam is not important in activating Hostile Invader. The extra card draw from Armorer can be nice, though it’s still clearly the 30th best card in the deck.
Mech and Reno Warrior are better at lower rank brackets. Mech Warrior should run at least one copy of Mind Control Tech. The Reno Warrior build from our TC article looks fine.
Egg Hunter looks good running the Discover package, but Gorm and Extraterrestrial Egg do not impress and neither does Detailed Notes. Alien Encounters is an extremely powerful card that doesn’t need that much support to perform at a very high level.
Anchorite Overheal Priest has been progressively getting better every day. An Ambient Lightspawn list with Trusty Fishing Rod looks like the best approach. Papercraft Angel makes a surprising appearance as a serviceable option.
Common builds of the deck run only 3 1-drops (2xClergy, 1xCatch), looking to pull Clergy consistently with Rod. We’re not sure this is the right approach, as Overzealous Healer and Crimson Clergy are excellent turn 1 plays that we want to keep in the mulligan when we get them. Pet Parrot performs poorly, so it’s easy to make space.
We might be better off running six 1-drops and gunning for Healer/Clergy/Rod as mulligan priorities. We want to see some data to compare, as dry metrics are a bit trickier to evaluate when there is tutoring involved. Once we know how Fishing Rod performs in the context of six 1-drops, we’ll be able to more confidently tell what the best approach is.
Zarimi Priest looks very powerful running one new card: Orbital Halo. This deck now runs too many spells for Magatha to perform well. We can only see Magatha coming back to the deck if we cut Power Word: Synchronize.
A Pain Priest deck looks promising too, all thanks to Ethereal Oracle turning Hot Coals into an incredible nuke. Yes, Sauna Regular fails to outperform Pet Parrot and doesn’t make the cut. Neither does Thirsty Drifter. This deck plays out the game extremely quickly and is the main reason why we think six 1-drops with Trusty Fishing Rod should be tested in Anchorite Priest.
Warlock sucks. There’s no sugarcoating it. Wheel Warlock is the only deck worth featuring, mostly because of its play rate. We’re not telling you to play it. Eredar Brute is not even a good card in an Endgame build. This list just adds Kil’jaeden and The Ceaseless Expanse.
The Starship package is worth running in Pirate Demon Hunter, even though it’s not exceptional in its performance. The issue is that there’s nothing else worth doing in the class. Unless Crewmate Demon Hunter gets massive buffs, it’s got no chance of competing.
An underwhelming expansion launch in terms of impact is likely to drive Team 5 into making big decisions in the upcoming balance patch that should hit the servers next week and send us on a break. On one hand, there is clearly a conscious effort to reduce the power level of the format by releasing a relatively weaker set and hoping to reset the game in rotation. However, if there’s anything that we’ve learned from history, it’s that low impact expansions are the most detrimental to the game’s success and player retention. Lowering the power level is ultimately meaningless if the end result is that players don’t have new, fun and compelling strategies to play with. Lowering the power level should not be the goal itself, but the path in which we supposedly make the game more fun.
There are two ways to go about this, though they are not mutually exclusive and a mixed approach is likely. We nerf the top meta decks. We buff the failed archetypes we promoted in the set. The top meta decks do a decent job of keeping each other in check. Nerfing the top meta decks harshly while avoiding the creation of an imbalanced format is a difficult undertaking, as there are several strategies that are a few matchups away from being unstoppable. Buffing the failed archetypes seems like a no brainer, but Team 5 might be resistant to making meaningful buffs when it seems focused on lowering the power level and hoping it pays off later. However, several strategies are so far away from being competitive that we’re certain they’ll stay dead even after rotation if they remain unchanged.
If we only nuke the top meta decks, we might end up playing Mech Warrior and Egg Hunter next week. It won’t bring Libram Paladin, Draenei Warrior, or Starship Warlock into the fray.
Indeed, the next patch could either revive the expansion, or have us long for Jimmy Raynor and Sarah Kerrigan.
In the meantime, enjoy the free wins provided by the most efficient ladder climber out there (Evolve Shaman) and the most well-rounded deck in the game that has no real counters (Pipsi Paladin).
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