vS Data Reaper Report #303

September 5, 2024

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Welcome to the 303rd edition of the Data Reaper Report!

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Class/Archetype Distribution | Class Frequency | Matchup Winrates | vS Power Rankings | vS Meta Score | Class Analysis & Decklists | Meta Breaker of the Week | How to Contribute | Credits

Number of Games

Overall 1,205,000
Top 1K Legend 37,000
Legend (Excluding Top 1k) 183,000
Diamond 4 to 1 117,000
Diamond 10 to 5 164,000
Platinum 161,000
Bronze/Silver/Gold 543,000

Class/Archetype Distribution

Class Frequency

Class Frequency Discussion

The current meta might be one of the most diverse in recent memory. At no point on ladder is there a deck with a play rate that reaches 10%. The most popular class at any rank bracket doesn’t hit a 17% play rate. Even at top legend, which tends to develop into a notoriously narrow field, we see all classes represented, with not a single one exceeding a 15% play rate.

Frost DK has become the most popular Death Knight deck across ladder, with Rainbow DK usually taking the second spot. At top legend, we see a bit more of Blood-Ctrl DK, which might be encouraged by the decline of Dragon Druid.

Dragon Druid may have drastically declined in the aftermath of the Doomkin nerf, but the class is still popular throughout ladder. Reno Druid is taking up the mantle, emerging as one of the most popular decks in the format. The Tidepool Pupil nerf has further shrunk Concierge Druid’s numbers.

Insanity Warlock might be the deck that utilized Tidepool Pupil best, so it’s no surprise to see a big decline in its play rate this week. Pain Warlock has picked up in play, while interest in other Warlock decks remains low.

A plethora of Rogue decks are being experimented with, following the buffs to Maestra and Eudora. Excavate and Cutlass Rogue are the two most popular decks, but we can also see Wishing Rogue (utilizing the buffed Metal Detector) and Gaslight Rogue. Sonya Rogue has drastically fallen off at top legend, resorting to its old, Cover Artist form.

Experiments with Big Warrior have quickly disappeared, while not much traction is observed in Mech Warrior. The class is still mostly reliant on the popularity of Reno Warrior, with a little bit of Odyn Warrior on the side.

Shaman is the most diverse class in the format, now fractured into 7 different archetypes. The previously established decks were Evolve, Pirate, Rainbow, Reno, Elemental and little bit of Nature. This week, the 7th archetype has emerged: Big Shaman. This deck was pioneered by Jambre, incorporating Razzle-Dazzler and Horn of the Windlord with Cliff Dive and a big minion package. It is the most popular Shaman deck at top legend.

Interest in Mage has picked up, with the class receiving the largest number of buffs in the patch. Both Rainbow and Big-Spell Mage are being experimented with, with 3-mana Watercolor Artist looking like the main point of interest. Spell Mage and Elemental Mage are still around, of course.

Handbuff Paladin maintains a stable presence across ladder, but the more interesting development comes with Lynessa Paladin. This failed archetype is exploring new territory with a Pipsi package that has picked up traction at higher levels of play. Showdown Paladin is barely noticeable.

Priest looks mostly the same. Reno Priest is relatively more popular at lower rank brackets. Overheal Priest is the top legend darling. Zarimi Priest is almost forgotten.

Pirate Demon Hunter’s play rate has increased across ladder, perhaps due to the pirate quest in the most recent event track. We do know that this deck has been performing well in recent times, despite not being a favored choice.

Hunter may have been resurrected, with the Mystery Egg buff igniting interest in Egg Hunter. It’s still the least popular class in the game, but its presence is far more encouraging across ladder, especially at top legend.

Matchup Win Rates Header

Power Rankings Header

vS Meta Score

vS Power Rankings Discussion

Death Knight

  • Frost DK looks like an elite deck across ladder, which isn’t surprising considering its pre-patch matchup spread. The Doomkin nerf meant that its matchup with Dragon Druid has become favored. There was a concern that the deck might spin out of control, but several counters have emerged to keep the deck in check. We don’t expect this Tier 1 deck to turn into an unstoppable Tier S deck thanks to these meta developments, as well as the relatively gentle nudge that Druid has received, which kept Reno Druid a relevant force in the format.
  • Rainbow DK is inferior to Frost, as it’s much more vulnerable to Druid, while exhibiting a worse matchup spread into most other classes. Still, it can be a strong choice thanks to the popularity of Rogue and Warrior.
  • Blood-Ctrl DK is a strong counter to Frost DK and several other aggressive decks, but is completely unplayable into Druid and Warrior. Its inability to pressure effectively means it runs into  trouble in late game matchups with inevitability. The Doomkin/Pupil nerfs helped boost its performance to a more competitive win rate, as it led to the decline of some of its worst matchups, but the deck is still expected to settle down in Tier 3.

Druid

  • Reno Druid’s rise in popularity is paired with a rise in its performance, maintaining a good matchup into Frost DK while doing well enough against most decks. Aggressive decks tend to be the main counters. Warlock presents the biggest problem, with Pain Warlock looking like the hardest counter. We don’t expect Reno Druid to become stronger than it currently is.
  • Dragon Druid is still doing fine, though not looking like one of the very best decks in the format. Its main issue is self inflicted, as players have persisted with a 7-mana Doomkin. We’ve already identified a better alternative to Doomkin that should help the archetype recover some of its decline in performance.
  • Concierge Druid is still playable with a 2-mana Tidepool Pupil, but looks noticeably worse than the two other Druid archetypes.

Warlock

  • The Pupil nerf has had a big impact on Insanity Warlock’s performance, keeping it strong and competitive but no longer one of the clear best decks in the game. It has several effective counters, especially at higher levels of play, that have pushed its win rate to the 50% mark.
  • Pain Warlock now looks like the stronger deck, even though its matchup spread is far more unstable. The popularity of Reno Druid and Reno Warrior has a lot to do with its performance, as it has many counters that can obliterate it. Powerful on average, but can be inconsistent depending on what you queue into.

Rogue

  • Rogue seems highly overplayed, as all of its decks are well below an average performance level, even at top legend. There is some refinement that could improve them, but we don’t anticipate any of them stepping out of Tier 3.
  • Excavate Rogue seems to be slightly unfavored into almost every relevant deck in the format, with the exception of a couple. It doesn’t help that Maestra and Eudora are extremely popular card choices, even though they don’t seem to provide any real benefits to their inclusions.
  • Cutlass Rogue has several counters that completely destroy it, while advantageous matchups are few and far between. Druid is a major problem in particular. We don’t think this deck merits more play, but players love their Thief-style Rogue decks.
  • Wishing Rogue is worse than the aforementioned two, sitting deep in Tier 4 territory. Its popular build is particularly egregious in some card choices, but we don’t have much hope even for a perfectly refined form of the deck.
  • Gaslight Rogue is okay, but we can’t see it doing much better than it does right now. Sonya Rogue has completely collapsed into meme tier. We don’t expect it to come close to a 45% win rate, let alone a competitive one, at any level of play.

Warrior

  • Reno Warrior has improved thanks to the nerfs, but remains a questionable deck in terms of power level. Nothing will stop players from playing it, which is why targeting Warrior is still a relevant strategy considering its popularity. Odyn Warrior doesn’t show any signs of a comeback. Mech Warrior is completely unplayable, despite having a 3-mana Boom Wrench.

Shaman

  • Big Shaman is a powerhouse and a game changer for this format. Its swing potential, thanks to Walking Mountain, is backbreaking in faster matchups. It’s the strongest counter we’ve seen to Frost DK (67-33). Its only slight weakness seems to be Reno decks, or very defensive minded decks packed with removal that don’t easily lose to Cliff Dive. Considering it’s the best performing deck across most of ladder, while remaining Tier 1 at top legend, it’s hard to argue against its meta breaking status.
  • Rainbow Shaman continues to be slept on, but its versatility is invaluable in a diverse format. Its two variants are both highly successful. The Hagatha build is straightforward and powerful. The Conductivity variant has seen more development, with great potential in slower matchups thanks to its combo-centric inevitability. We are curious why this archetype doesn’t get more traction. Its matchup spread is very strong and no changes in the field seem to shake it off the top of the win rate charts.
  • Evolve and Pirate Shaman are both still quite good, though a rung below Rainbow/Big at higher levels of play. We would not be surprised to see them being left behind if the aforementioned two take off. Shaman has more options than it can handle.

Mage

  • Mage’s standing in the format is not too different from Rogue’s. The buffs have pushed Big-Spell and Rainbow Mage into more competitive win rates, which means Mage has 4 different decks to choose from. Yet none of these decks are particularly good. Spell Mage seems to be the most stable one, but struggles to hit a positive win rate with a checkered matchup spread. Rainbow Mage does well into Rogue, but not much else. Big-Spell Mage is comparable in power to Reno Warrior, without the cult-like following. Elemental Mage is non-existent past Diamond 5.

Paladin

  • Lynessa has arrived! Recent developments in the class, which are still mostly concentrated to top legend, suggest that the archetype should be very competitive. The deck’s refinement process is ongoing. We estimate that Lynessa Paladin will prove to be a Tier 2 performer, at worst, within days. Our findings should prove to be valuable in accelerating its refinement. Turns out that all it needed was more coins to insert into the Pepsi machine.
  • Handbuff Paladin continues to look stable and strong. However, Big Shaman is an extremely hard counter that could prove to be a problem if it takes off.
  • Barely anyone cares about poor Showdown Paladin. It doesn’t see much play, but it’s completely fine.

Priest

  • Overheal Priest is an elite deck at higher levels of play. With the collapse of Sonya Rogue, it’s now the most skill intensive deck in the format that boasts a competitive win rate. It has a great matchup spread overall, with favorability against both Frost DK and Insanity Warlock, decks that are relatively difficult to counter. It tends to struggle against the “overplayed classes” that are in decline, in Warrior and Rogue, so it’s projected to get even stronger over the next week. We believe it will become the clear best deck at top legend over the next couple of days.
  • Zarimi Priest continues to look like a very powerful ladder climber that just doesn’t get much attention. Reno Priest gets a lot of attention considering how terrible it is.

Demon Hunter

  • Pirate DH is strong, but as we’ve said before the patch, highly polarizing. Run into Druid or Warrior, you’ll feel unstoppable. Run into Death Knight or Shaman, you’ll curse your luck. Thankfully, the popularity of Druid and Warrior means DH is eating good across ladder, sitting at Tier 1.

Hunter

  • Hunter is back. Egg Hunter is a real, competitive deck that can find plenty of success in this format. The great news is that it doesn’t fall off at top legend, so it feels relevant everywhere, something that we’ve missed from the class for a long time. It performs well against a variety of popular decks. It is a bit vulnerable to getting ran down by aggressive decks, or eating burst damage, but no deck in the format is perfect. That’s the way it should be.

Class Analysis & Decklists

Death Knight | Demon Hunter | Druid | Hunter | Mage | Paladin | Priest | Rogue | Shaman | Warlock | Warrior

 

With the nerf to Tidepool Pupil, we’ve seen that both Tidepool Pupil and Cold Feet have regressed in their performance in Frost Death Knight. We’ve replaced them with Frost Strike and Chillfallen Baron. Helya is gaining traction to beat the slower decks in the format, including Blood-Ctrl Death Knight that attempts to target Frost.

No changes in Rainbow Death Knight, where Frosty Décor still looks superior to Frost Strike.

Blood-Ctrl Death Knight wants to cut Tidepool Pupil too, as it’s become the worst card in the deck.

Blood-Reno Death Knight is possibly superior to Blood-Ctrl at lower MMR’s but gets outclassed at higher levels of play.

Data Reaper Report - Druid

Doomkin has become one of the weakest cards in Dragon Druid, but most players have not bothered to try replacing it. A recent build has done so, looking superior to old iterations by dropping it for Crystal Cluster. Gnomelia is another recent addition that looks impressive.

Reno Druid has grown stronger in this patch. Spinetail Drake looks very strong in this format. Mixologist and Observer of Mysteries give us a couple of turn 3 plays for when we don’t find New Heights, Splish-Splash Whelp, or Malfurion’s Gift.

Concierge Druid has been indirectly weakened due to the Pupil nerf, but it can’t afford to cut the card. We don’t have any notable data to comment on with regards to a Spell Damage Druid that drops Concierge.

Data Reaper Report - Warlock

Insanity Warlock still wants to run Tidepool Pupil, as it is critical to its game plan. That means no changes to the list we settled on before the patch.

No changes to Pain Warlock either, with the main decision coming down between Symphony of Sins and Party Planner Vona. Neither card is great.

Data Reaper Report - Rogue

After careful evaluation of Maestra and Eudora following their buffs to 5-mana, we’ve reached the conclusion that both cards are still active liabilities in Excavate Rogue. The majority of Excavate builds include either one or both cards, but you’re better off running neither. The cards did get better, but they probably need to cost 4-mana to become “decent inclusions”.

Cutlass Rogue wants to run Maestra for the sake of Health Drink, but never wants to draw the card. Eudora is consistently the worst card in the deck whenever it’s included.

For Wishing Rogue to stop being completely awful, it needs to drop Scoundrel and Pupil. Improving the consistency of Greedy Partner and Dig for Treasure could help.

Gaslight Rogue is still somewhat competitive. Speaker Stomper is a liability in the current format, despite being included in nearly every build. Cover Artist and Valeera’s Gift offer a useful win condition for the deck against opponents with mass removal (Sonya/Mini-Scoundrel/Artist/Gift).

Data Reaper Report - Warrior

We’ve cut Tidepool Pupil from Reno Warrior. The deck will likely benefit from the cut even if ‘All You Can Eat’ has less tutor targets as a result.

Odyn Warrior should run both Fizzle and Ignis in this format. Ignis was weak pre-patch but got dramatically better after (format slowed down). Fizzle has been mandatory for a while.

Data Reaper Report - Shaman

Jambre’s Big Shaman is a fantastic addition to the format, proving to be a very powerful deck and the best counter available to Frost Death Knight. The deck has three main win conditions: Horn of the Windlord, Razzle-Dazzler, and Cliff Dive. The first two are well established, but Cliff Dive is what makes the deck unique. With the specific minion package in the deck, Cliff Dive is devastating in faster matchups, especially if a Walking Mountain is summoned. Muck Pools can turn that temporary summon into a permanent one. Fairy Tale Forest helps us pull Hagatha and Dazzler from the deck, making it less likely they’re summoned by Cliff Dive.

Rainbow Shaman continues to look like a very strong and underrated deck. Greedy Partner is proving to a big upgrade for the Conductivity variant, compared to Cabaret Headliner.

Weapons Attendant looks like a decent card in Pirate Shaman, helping us pull a free Horn of the Windlord from the deck.

Reno Shaman is starting to cut the Tourist package to lean more heavily into its late game.

Data Reaper Report - Mage

Rainbow Mage now looks somewhat competitive with the significant buff to Watercolor Artist. Sleet Skater is currently excluded because there aren’t too many big minions to freeze in the current format. Reverberation dramatically improves the Warrior matchup.

Watercolor Artist is also useful in Big-Spell Mage thanks to the synergy with Tsunami. DJ Manastorm is now a good card in the deck after its buff to 9 mana.

Data Reaper Report - Paladin

The main thing Handbuff Paladin needs to do is to stop running irrelevant tech cards. Sonya Rogue is effectively dead, so there’s no need to run cards like Customs Enforcer.

Lynessa Paladin is finally showing signs of life. The Pipsi build is very promising. The buffed Metal Detector is a great card in the deck and should be included as two copies. Knickknack Shack does not perform well. Neither does Bloodmage Thalnos. Surprisingly, Griftah is another poor performer that we suggest cutting. Lynessa is mostly used in this deck with Divine Brew and Horn of the Windlord rather than with Griftah. We added Gold Panner to help Greedy Partner activate on turn 2 more consistently. This deck wants coins more than anything else so it can enable both Lynessa and Pipsi.

Data Reaper Report - Priest

Overheal Priest can drop Tidepool Pupil without hurting its game plan. Reno Priest is still bad.

Hot Coals and Southsea Captain are seeing more play in Pirate Demon Hunter. With the format slightly slowing down, there is more room to run cards that require a bit more setup. Captain is a snowballing card in slow matchups, providing some redundancy to Hozen Roughhouser. Hot Coals is strong in faster matchups due to its swing potential.

Data Reaper Report - Hunter

Egg Hunter is perfectly competitive thanks to the Mystery Egg buff. Greedy Partner is very important as it allows us to play Egg as early as turn 3. A minimal secret package performs well in the deck.



Standard Hearthstone is in the healthiest position it’s been for a long time. Hopefully, the Traveling Travel Agency next week will only add to the competitive options that are currently available. A comprehensive preview of the mini-set will be published on September 9th, a day before launch.

In the meantime, try out Big Shaman for your climb to legend, where it is the clear best deck in the game. At top legend, we largely expect Overheal Priest to take the #1 spot.

Stay tuned.

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