vS Data Reaper Report #334

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Welcome to the 334th edition of the Data Reaper Report! This is the first report for Across the Timeways and follows last Thursday’s balance patch.

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Class/Archetype Distribution | Class Frequency | Matchup Winrates | vS Power Rankings | vS Meta Score | Class Analysis & Decklists | Meta Breaker of the Week | How to Contribute | Credits


Number of Games

Overall 2,291,000
Top 1K Legend 56,000
Legend (Excluding Top 1k) 600,000
Diamond 4 to 1 594,000
Diamond 10 to 5 467,000
Platinum 246,000
Bronze/Silver/Gold 328,000

Class/Archetype Distribution

Class Frequency

Class Frequency Discussion

Across the Timeways launched in a similar fashion to most expansions over the last year. Low impact of the new cards with some sprinkles of novelty, drowned out by established strategies that proved to be superior in every way. The balance patch hit those established strategies, with the hope that Timeways decks will be able to compete, as they did not look as unplayable as Un’Goro decks were.

Discover Hunter was completely irrelevant before the patch but has taken advantage of the massive power vacuum from mass nerfs to launch itself to the very top of the format. The deck is in the process of completely taking over top legend ladder, with the prospect of a play rate exceeding 30% looking like a realistic possibility. The only new cards the deck runs are the Windrunner sisters, and they have made a big impact. Face Hunter sees little play and has not gained much traction since Timeways launch.

Shaman is another class that has taken a massive leap after the balance patch, though the seeds of Hagatha Shaman were planted earlier. This archetype is basically Nebula Shaman, which has decided to cut Nebula for alternative Hagatha targets that apply pressure on the opponent earlier (Wish Upon a Star and Furious Fowls). Muradin and Static Shock are the main new additions, with Static Shock helping the deck activate Elise with a slightly lower curve. Experiments with an “Enrage Shaman” running Stormrook and Flux Revenant have not panned out.

Dragon Warrior started to emerge before the patch and became one of the primary options for the class after the deletion of Mech Warrior. This deck may offer the most novel experience in the format, utilizing the previously unsuccessful dragon shell with small bits of enrage mechanics and the fabled Blood Fighters at the top of the curve. Meanwhile, Quest Control Warrior has abandoned the Terran and Hydration Station builds for a purely defensive-minded list that runs Murozond for the Time Warp synergy.

Protoss Mage is another example of an old deck that has risen to fill the power vacuum caused by the mass nerfs. The deck is modestly popular at all levels of play, with Chrono-Lord Deios the one new addition making an impact.

Demon Hunter continues to utilize Aggro and Peddler DH, while Starship DH has died due to the nerf to Arkonite Defense Crystal. Perennial Serpent is the main new addition to the class. Cliff Dive DH seems to be starting up a comeback.

Blood-Ctrl DK has survived the nerf to Sanguine Infestation. Starship DK did not survive the nerf to Arkonite Defense Crystal. Herenn DK is experimenting with different builds. A Bwonsamdi DK deck without Herenn or Wakener of Souls has also appeared.

Every Rogue deck that utilizes Sandbox Scoundrel is gone. Aggro Rogue is the most noticeable archetype. Cycle Rogue is attempting a comeback at top legend.

Druid has looked like a fringe class since launch. With Spell-Damage Druid receiving a big nerf as well, the patch did not improve Druid’s competitive prospects.

Players are mostly trying to make Aviana Priest work with Medivh, while Protoss Priest has not changed, trying to overcome a Resuscitate nerf. Zarimi Priest has slightly popped up with a Murozond build.

Warlock has suffered a complete collapse. Quest Warlock is dead. Shred Warlock has also been nerfed and has not picked up much play. Rafaam looked dead on arrival.

Enthusiasm for Paladin quickly waned. Quest Paladin has dramatically dropped off. Aura Paladin is in decline.

Matchup Win Rates Header

Power Rankings Header

vS Meta Score

vS Power Rankings Discussion

Hunter

  • The gravitation to Discover Hunter at top legend looks entirely justified, as the deck looks completely unstoppable at higher levels of play. There are no real counters to Hunter, with only Control Warrior displaying a small edge against it. Dragon Warrior seems to do well against Discover Hunter at lower rank brackets but loses its edge against stronger Hunter players.
  • Face Hunter is not too bad, though we struggle to see a reason to ever play it. It gets countered by any sort of life gain.

Shaman

  • While Discover Hunter is a top legend tyrant, Hagatha Shaman looks like an everywhere else tyrant. The deck’s performance across ladder completely outclasses all other alternatives. There are no counters to Hagatha Shaman either. Only top legend Discover Hunter players have proven capable of maintaining a small edge in the matchup. Once again, a mass nerfs patch has resulted in the creation of a new meta tyrant. This time, we are dealing with two.

Warrior

  • We believe the main reason why Control Warrior is maintaining its popularity, especially at higher levels of play, is its good matchup against Discover Hunter. However, it has many other terrible matchups, leading to its poor performance across the board. It might become a useful pick at top legend if Discover Hunter numbers reach an absurd threshold.
  • Dragon Warrior falls off at higher levels of play, a result of its declining performance against Discover Hunter, as well as other decks. It seems to have a limited skill ceiling. Refinement could prevent the archetype from declining further, as its most popular build currently runs no less than 4 atrocious cards. It is a strong choice to climb to legend with, but utterly inferior to the unstoppable Hagatha Shaman deck. This matchup is rough too.

Mage

  • Protoss Mage looks like a playable deck, but not a good one. It loses to most of the good decks, so its performance is expected to decline further.
  • Arcane Mage is complete garbage.

Demon Hunter

  • Aggro DH performs well until it faces better Discover Hunter players, when it loses its edge in the matchup. Since it loses to Hagatha Shaman too, its performance falls to 50% at top legend and should decline further. A strong ladder climber, but Hagatha Shaman is ultimately so much better.
  • Peddler DH is not too bad, but it does not perform well against Hunter, so success with it will have a limit once you reach a certain point on ladder.
  • Cliff Dive DH looks extremely promising. It does not lose to Hunter or Shaman and the rest of its matchup spread has no weaknesses. It might become a third dominant component in the format, should players be willing to queue it, as its attractiveness has been its primary obstacle for a while.

Death Knight

  • Blood-Ctrl DK has survived, but the Hunter and Shaman matchups are unfavored, while Cliff Dive DH eats it, so we cannot expect it to perform better than Tier 2 in the current format. It performs well against other decks.
  • Herenn DK performs decently with the right build, but the deck looks largely inferior to Blood-Ctrl DK. We will see if it can catch up through refinement.

Rogue

  • Cycle Rogue is showing promise at top legend, but it is a bit of mirage. Its matchup spread against the good decks is not impressive. It does not actually beat any notable meta deck. Its current win rate is boosted by the inflated play rate of Mage, which completely rolls over to Cycle Rogue. Mage should decline in theory, leading Cycle Rogue to decline in its performance. At its current trajectory, it is headed for Tier 3.
  • Aggro Rogue sucks until further notice.

Druid

  • Druid is a dumpster class. Imbue Druid might be playable, but we are not sure.

Priest

  • Protoss Priest looks mediocre and may become worse over time considering it loses to both Hunter and Shaman. Aviana Priest is unplayable. Zarimi Priest does not look promising based on its small sample either, though players are making a big mistake with its build.

Warlock

  • Warlock looks doomed. Shred Warlock gets shredded by Hunter and Shaman. Rafaam is hilariously bad. Unless a breakthrough is found then the class is headed nowhere. Perhaps some Egg Warlock is feasible, but we have not found a list we like yet.

Paladin

  • Aggro Paladin is playable, but no one cares. Aura Paladin had some initial promise but nosedived due to poor Shaman/Hunter matchups and the Metal Detector nerf.

Class Analysis & Decklists

Death Knight | Demon Hunter | Druid | Hunter | Mage | Paladin | Priest | Rogue | Shaman | Warlock | Warrior

 


Data Reaper Report - Hunter

Discover Hunter is better off running Wisp than Devilsaur Mask for the sake of Elise activation. It is possible to cut Elise from the deck, but the builds that do should not be running cards that cost more than 5 mana in this case. For some reason, there is a belief that Bob, Zilliax and Incindius are in the deck for their own merit. They are not.

Glacial Shard is not strong in the mirror, nor is it great against Shaman (High King’s Hammer is not the deck’s primary win condition). Two copies of Scarab Keychain help discount Alien Encounters faster.

Face Hunter is not the worst deck in the world, but we do not expect it to survive the current format.

Data Reaper Report - Shaman

Hagatha Shaman wants to run two copies of Wish Upon a Star and two copies of Static Shock. No other card is worth giving up on those. Living Flame is horrendous. This leaves the deck at 29 cards, with Primordial Overseer looking like the 30th best, but looks completely replaceable. Hex is another option, though the card is not good in the mirror or against Hunter, so the higher you climb (and the less Warriors you see), the less effective it becomes. Muradin is barely good enough. We do not consider it mandatory and can see it being cut if better options present themselves.

Data Reaper Report - Warrior

There are 4 cards currently being run in Dragon Warrior that we consider to be abominations: Demolition Renovator, Royal Librarian, Plucky Paintfin and The Curator. Cutting these cards leads to winning more Hearthstone games.

We would like to see more experimentation with these 4 available slots. Shadowflame Suffusion looks decent, as do Zephrys and Mukla. Whelp of the Infinite and Portal Vanguard are other playable 3-drops to consider. Dragon Turtle requires us to add Creature of Madness, which is a bit harder to fit as we cannot give up on Suffusion in this case.

Control Warrior seems to work best now with Enter the Lost City and Murozond. Unleash the Crocolisks, ‘For Glory!’ and Precursory Strike are great additions to the archetype. There is little reason to run Dirty Rat in the current meta.

Data Reaper Report - Mage

Deios opens new possibilities for Protoss Mage to run a build with more card draw and less spell generation. With Warp Gate, there is no need to scale up Colossus as much as possible, as a simple Deios/Colossus combo can OTK most opponents. A Warp Gate set up can even help us play Colossus twice with Deios in one turn.

Blizzard looks a bit like bait. The package with Watercolor Artist is unnecessary. Khadgar is much better. Seabreeze Chalice will save your skin in the early game far more often too.

Perennial Serpent is a strong card in Demon Hunter decks. Slumbering Sprite is a decent enabler for the card in Aggro Demon Hunter, alongside Red Card and Grim Harvest. Grim Harvest is the strongest enabler by far and has become a mulligan priority for the archetype as a result.

Peddler Demon Hunter should do its best to accommodate two copies of Serpent, even if it means running the weakened Ancient of Yore. We are open to other options in these slots though. It is possible that two copies of Serpent are consistent enough without Yore, as they are in Aggro Demon Hunter with 6 dormant cards rather than 8. Broxigar is mostly utilized for Elise activation. Axe of Cenarius looks like a decent standalone weapon.

Cliff Dive Demon Hunter is a sleeper strong deck in the current meta. The Colifero build looks like the best one at all levels of play, significantly superior to Briarspawn Drake shenanigans. We believe there is some insistence on Briarspawn Drakes as they are slightly better against Hunter (4-5%), but other matchups are drastically worse to the point it does not seem worthwhile (over 15% against Shaman and 12% against Warrior, for example). We are keeping an open mind on this one, depending on how absurd Hunter numbers get at some places on ladder.

Blood-Ctrl Death Knight has seen no major developments since the expansion’s launch, nor did it change after the patch. Interestingly, Husk performed well before the patch at a low sample and disappeared since. We wonder if there is merit for the card, as it seems useful on paper in some matchups.

Herenn Death Knight can run Bwonsamdi, but the best direction currently does not give up Travel Security. Stitched Giants can be cut though, with Hideous Husk becoming more important following the mana cost increase to Sanguine Infestation. Infestation is helped by the fact the leeches are harder to ignore when they are summoned on turn 5.

Data Reaper Report - Rogue

The only direction where Aggro Rogue is not complete garbage is when it leverages a weapon buffing package. Even then, we doubt this deck gains further traction.

Cycle Rogue is competitive at top legend. Playhouse Giant is a possibility, but we do not have enough data on the card. It might be more important to be able to kill opponents with shuffled damage than develop threats. This is why Thalnos is in the deck.

Protoss Rogue is showing some signs of being able to compete with Hunter, though the Shaman matchup is an issue. Do not treat this featured build as anywhere near solved. We did not have enough data to properly evaluate cards. We are mostly floating a prototype with the bits of analysis we could do.

Data Reaper Report - Druid

Druid does not have much to do. Waveshaping and Ebb and Flow go into most Druid decks and make them better, but it does not seem enough to compete. Imbue Druid might be the best shot the class has in the current meta.

Data Reaper Report - Priest

Protoss Priest does not change. Sasquawk has become even more important, as Resuscitate now costs 6 mana and the legendary parrot becomes a direct follow up.

The Murozond direction is the only playable one for Zarimi Priest. Players on ladder are hilariously not cutting Fyrakk, which interferes with Scale Replica thanks to its new cost.

Data Reaper Report - Warlock

Shred Warlock should drop Corpsicle like a rock. Mukla and Living Paradox represent decent turn 3 plays for the archetype that synergize with the deck’s ability to either go tall or spread wide. Yes, Living Paradox is better than Party Fiend.

Wallow Warlock has never looked better. It is still unplayable, but the day when the archetype becomes competitive may arrive sooner than we think, considering the quality of cards available post-rotation.

Data Reaper Report - Paladin

Aura Paladin was hit with collateral damage by the Metal Detector nerf. Cardboard Golem is trash in the deck. If there is any proof required to buff the card, this must be it. It is a garbage card in a deck that is completely built around auras. Hello?

The best Paladin deck is Arena Aggro Paladin.


Expansion does not land. Mass nerfs are made to help new archetypes compete. Other old decks rise instead and meta tyrants form, threatening to choke out the meta. This has been Hearthstone’s tune for the last year.

Discover Hunter is broken at top legend and might create a format where only three or four decks at higher levels of play break a 50% win rate. Hagatha Shaman is broken everywhere. This deck is obscenely effective at carrying you to legend without much fuss. Cliff Dive DH might be at their level. Enjoy farming free wins until everyone else catches on, which should be right about now… Sorry about that.


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EndofDaysTzachilookitzjoe

2 Comments

  1. Some very strange takes in here that definitely aren’t reflective of the top performers at the moment and look like two-three week old samples. Ancient of Yore in Peddler is an awful pick, saying that Blood Control is unchanged when the top variant has been running Marin/Husk/Horseman without Sanguine Infestation for almost a week now is also strange.

    Normally, these reports make a lot of sense but I am sorry to say this one is pretty inadequate in some spots.

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